國泰金牛_國泰金牛基金020010

國泰金牛基金經理王宗合認為，目前a股估值處于歷史低位，市場風險偏好提升，資金持續流入，但短期仍需警惕外圍市場波動風險。建議投資者保持積極態度，掌握結構性機會。從行業配置來看，銀行、地產、家電等行業仍是當前配置的主要方向，但部分周期性行業可能出現調整。

一：國泰金牛(020010)基金凈值

金融界基金04月12日訊 國泰金牛創新成長混合型證券投資基金（簡稱：國泰金牛創新成長混合，代碼020010）04月11日凈值下跌2.74%，引起投資者

國泰金牛創新成長混合基金成立以來收益168.57%，今年以來收益33.69%，近一月收益7.44%，近一年收益4.81%，近三年收益24.30%。

國泰金牛創新成長混合基金成立以來分紅7次，累計分紅金額21.97億元。目前該基金開放申購。

基金經理為程洲，自2015年01月26日治理該基金，任職期內收益36.75%。

最新基金定期報告顯示，該基金重倉持有申通快遞（持倉比例6.11%）、仙琚制藥（持倉比例5.73%）、勝宏科技（持倉比例5.59%）、普洛藥業（持倉比例5.37%）、大亞圣象（持倉比例5.28%）、景旺電子（持倉比例4.82%）、工商銀行（持倉比例4.77%）、司太立（持倉比例4.59%）、中國平安（持倉比例4.55%）、天宇股份（持倉比例4.33%）。

報告期內基金投資策略和運作分析

2018年A股市場的整體表現再次印證了股市“逢八必衰”的規律，市場的悲慘程度大大超出了我們年初的預期。由于對如此大的市場風險估計不足，我們沒能做好搭配的風險控制，搭配凈值出現了較大的回撤，對此造成基金持有人的財富損失深感愧疚！反思一年的操作，主要是犯了兩個較為嚴峻的錯誤：一是，大局觀不夠，只顧埋頭拉車，沒有抬頭看路。2018年，從宏觀層面看有三個事件主宰了市場，第一個是資管新規對經濟體和股市流淌性的抽離，第二個是中美貿易戰的分分合合打擊了市場的風險偏好，第三個是經濟在四季度有加速下滑的跡象，再疊加美股和原油價格的快速下跌，這些因素依次出場從而導致了市場自二月份開跌之后就沒有一次像樣的指數反彈。雖然搭配二季度也曾經升高過股票倉位，但很快就把倉位加回來，還是沒有看清晰2018年股票資產的風險如此之大，最終四季度凈值回撤最大。二是，定力不夠，沒能堅持到最后。2018年指數幾乎是單邊下跌，但每個季度都有明顯的一些機會，如一季度的銀行地產、二季度的醫藥生產、三季度的上證50、四季度的5G/養殖/原料藥，不過這些機會最終看都是帶刺的玫瑰，追逐這些機會的過程中若沒有及時獲利了結，最終都是一地雞毛。我們在前三季度始終堅持偏價值的投資風格，保持了定力，沒有追逐熱點，尤其是面對二季度如火如荼的醫藥股行情也沒有盲目沖動，但三季度上證50逆勢上漲讓我們感覺到自己走在準確的道路了，積極加倉藍籌股，而最終四季度上證50出現大幅補跌，我們還是沒有堅持到最后。作為策略分析師出身的基金經理，面對2018年一路下行的市場居然沒有在資產配置上做調整來控制風險是十分不應當的。自2015年以來，我們每年都會有一兩次大的資產配置的調整，除了2015年較好地規避了股災的損失，其余年份都沒有啥效果，以至有些是負貢獻，2018年二季度末大幅降倉后同樣沒能在三季度上證50逆市上漲的行情中受益，這讓我們逐漸忽視了倉位調整的重要性，開始加倉，開始執迷于尋覓結構性機會，最終凈值四季度嚴峻受損。資產配置的重要性在低迷了兩年后再次顯現。股市就是這樣，當你對某些現象開始堅信不疑時，市場就會向相反的方向運行。2018年又一次給自己上了一課，要牢記均值回歸是市場不變的真理！

本基金2018年度凈值增長率為-25.29%，同期業績比較基準為-19.66%。

治理人對宏觀經濟、證券市場及行業走勢的簡要展望

進入2019年，我們首先要擺正心態，保持對市場的敬畏之心，第二是不要被2018年市場表現出的特征所束縛，不能簡樸的順應性預期市場特征會在第二年延續，不能重犯2018年的錯誤，第三是要客觀的自上而下分析資產配置并自下而上的精選個股，施展出自己的專業能力。展望2019年，對于決定市場運行的幾個要害問題，我們的看法是：宏觀層面：經濟增速下降的趨勢不會容易改變，但是貨幣政策會進一步提升市場流淌性，財政政策在減稅降費和擴大新基建方面會更積極，股票市場的宏觀環境會好于2018年；風險偏好：中美貿易戰有望緩解，但是美國對中國的戰略遏制不會改變，沒有人再天真的認為還會回到以前的甜蜜期，因而風險偏好不會再差；市場風格：相比2018年，資產配置的重要性會下降，而結構性機會的重要性會再次回升；大盤價值風格在占優兩年多后會讓位于中小盤成長風格；因而，2019年我們會積極地尋覓在中國經濟轉型晉級的過程中能夠走出去和活下來的各個細分行業的龍頭公司，2018年大面積股票的大幅下跌中存在著一批錯殺的中小市值品種，我們要在泥沙俱下中尋覓到這些“真金”，這些公司應當具備：清楚的戰略目標、高效的執行力、持續高額的研發投入、健康的商業模式、健康的資產負債表、以及合理的價格。最后我們想對持有人說的是：2018年的教訓我們會銘記在心！2019年我們要做的更好！（點擊查看更多基金異動）

二：國泰金牛基金今日凈值查詢

12月10日基金凈值 更新日期：12月7日

代碼名稱最新凈值上期凈值最新凈值增長率近一周凈值增長率近一月凈值增長率累計凈值累計分紅最新份額(億)

000001NV.OF華夏成長凈值2.0452.0270.894.5-4.443.2261.18161.5457

000011NV.OF華夏大盤精選凈值6.7166.6271.345.650.076.8960.188.2684

000021NV.OF華夏優勢增長凈值2.4462.4240.915.25-3.052.5660.1291.6291

000031NV.OF華夏復興凈值0.990.981.025.21-1.880.99049.9911

000041NV.OF華夏全球精選凈值0.9320.877.137.13-8.630.9320300.5564

001001NV.OF華夏債券AB凈值1.1121.113-0.090.36-0.271.3620.2543.8711

001003NV.OF華夏債券C凈值1.1051.106-0.090.27-0.361.3550.2510.1886

002001NV.OF華夏回報凈值1.3521.3420.753.84-1.893.3231.971168.754

002011NV.OF華夏紅利凈值3.0122.9850.95.24-3.033.8450.83387.8217

002021NV.OF華夏回報2號凈值1.181.1690.944.33-1.862.4271.24772.7903

020001NV.OF國泰金鷹增長凈值3.4193.3870.945.13-4.234.1820.7633.6006

020002NV.OF國泰金龍債券凈值1.0651.06500.280.371.2280.1637.6107

020003NV.OF國泰金龍行業精選凈值3.2673.2341.024.71-4.054.0990.8321.8937

020005NV.OF國泰金馬穩健回報凈值1.0111.0020.93.9-4.354.1633.119106.0574

020006NV.OF國泰金象保本增值凈值1.4311.4280.210.57-0.281.4310.441.9986020008NV.OF國泰金鹿保本增值凈值1.5941.590.251.4-1.241.6190.0259.1382020009NV.OF國泰金鵬藍籌價值凈值1.2881.2770.865.05-5.442.1730.88538.6777020010NV.OF國泰金牛創新成長凈值1.2161.2050.914.56-4.11.2660.0581.0883020011NV.OF國泰滬深300凈值000004.4543.5270040001NV.OF華安創新凈值0.9830.9810.213.26-2.094.4543.5279.1249040002NV.OF華安MSCI中國A股凈值4.2624.2011.456.18-4.634.6320.3710.6404040004NV.OF華安寶利配置凈值1.0951.0890.553.89-0.543.3352.2429.9092040005NV.OF華安宏利凈值2.9282.89721.065.54-3.713.3180.3952.9924040006NV.OF華安國際配置凈值1.0231.0160.69001.02301.8104040007NV.OF華安中小盤成長凈值1.46971.44781.516.02-3.422.78461.7749144.3842040008NV.OF華安策略優選凈值1.0221.01510.684.46-4.812.55832.6563243.7349050001NV.OF博時價值增長凈值1.0080.99814.13-3.363.512.502409.9358050002NV.OF博時裕富凈值1.3541.3371.276.11-6.493.3341.98192.2833050004NV.OF博時精選凈值2.12762.1041.125.19-4.253.51761.39120.9471050006NV.OF博時穩定價值債券B凈值1.0531.0520.090.380.191.0910.03814.3767050007NV.OF博時平衡配置凈值1.2571.2470.84.14-5.562.3181.06146.2127050008NV.OF博時第三產業成長凈值1.4941.4810.885.43-3.683.3052.051154.3808050009NV.OF博時新興成長凈值1.0741.0611.225.09-3.944.0293.4023294.7625050106NV.OF博時穩定價值債券A凈值1.0541.0530.090.470.181.0920.0380.4585050201NV.OF博時價值增長2號凈值0.9760.9670.934.83-5.242.4311.45568.9229070001NV.OF嘉實成長收益凈值1.77821.76370.823.72-1.793.32821.5535.506070002NV.OF嘉實增長凈值4.4254.3930.733.95-1.864.7660.3416.8834070003NV.OF嘉實穩健凈值1.331.3190.834.56-4.113.4561.7369302.1839070005NV.OF嘉實債券凈值1.2591.2560.230.48-2.631.6090.3532.9815070006NV.OF嘉實服務增值行業凈值4.2244.1940.714.01-2.094.3440.1229.8796070007NV.OF嘉實浦安保本凈值11.0010.10.10.161.8970.8972.3635070009NV.OF嘉實超短債凈值1.00281.00240.040.110.241.04630.04353.0955070010NV.OF嘉實主題精選凈值1.7191.7090.594.43-2.332.8841.16583.1135070011NV.OF嘉實策略增長凈值1.6671.6520.915.04-2.41.6670127.1473070012NV.OF嘉實海外中國股票凈值0.9090.8546.446.44-8.370.9090297.5033070099NV.OF嘉實優質企業凈值000002.9691.8440080001NV.OF長盛成長價值凈值1.1251.1170.714.17-3.62.9691.84419.3219090001NV.OF大成價值增長凈值0.97080.961215.43-1.233.63082.6617.4458090002NV.OF大成債券AB凈值1.06641.0666-0.020.640.141.29590.229521.5133090003NV.OF大成藍籌穩健凈值1.10881.09870.925.24-3.163.67882.57183.4507090004NV.OF大成精選增值凈值1.91941.89251.425.54-3.623.31991.400540.6571090006NV.OF大成財富治理2020凈值0.9790.970.935.16-2.592.8011.82266.3478092002NV.OF大成債券C凈值1.05631.0566-0.030.620.071.28580.229521.5133100016NV.OF富國天源平衡凈值1.23841.22571.044.58-5.032.4991.260614.8974100018NV.OF富國天利增長債券凈值1.28291.28060.181.16-0.351.71290.4317.457100020NV.OF富國天益價值凈值1.05031.03981.015.16-1.124.06163.011318.2165100022NV.OF富國天瑞強勢地區精選凈值2.04692.01261.715.82-3.253.21691.177.7829100026NV.OF富國天合穩健優選凈值0.99330.98370.975.64-2.952.37281.379556.506110001NV.OF易方達平穩增長凈值1.9571.940.885.16-2.733.0671.1144.9782110002NV.OF易方達策略成長凈值5.1115.0690.836.88-4.045.7410.6328.2866110003NV.OF易方達上證50凈值1.42581.4091.196.16-3.953.27581.85173.4911110005NV.OF易方達積極成長凈值1.67571.66080.95.8-3.614.7371.8812124.7659110007NV.OF易方達月月收益A凈值1.00841.0080.040.10.421.040.03162.8524110008NV.OF易方達月月收益B凈值1.00861.00820.040.110.451.04020.02830.0999110009NV.OF易方達價值精選凈值2.9982.97060.926.16-3.433.1780.1852.7314110010NV.OF易方達價值成長凈值1.52291.50361.295.76-3.091.55290.03255.6301112002NV.OF易方達策略成長2號凈值1.8491.8340.826.45-4.153.3441.49541.7316121001NV.OF國投瑞銀融華債券凈值1.43741.42740.72.52-2.892.28940.8524.5693121002NV.OF國投瑞銀景氣行業凈值0.95180.9421.044.08-4.422.92081.96954.433121003NV.OF國投瑞銀核心企業凈值1.26851.25511.076.21-5.552.70851.44156.4999121005NV.OF國投瑞銀創新動力凈值1.49421.479415.63-4.542.72730.840644.6447121007NV.OF國投瑞銀瑞福優先凈值1.0541.0510.291.44-0.851.054029.9984150001NV.SZ國投瑞銀瑞福進取凈值1.2661.2412.0110.57-9.121.266030.005150002NV.SZ大成優選凈值1.1921.1791.17.68-4.331.192046.7431150103NV.OF銀河銀泰理財分紅凈值1.06581.05491.044.74-4.933.60582.5446.3536151001NV.OF銀河穩健凈值1.41671.40320.964.95-2.833.22171.80516.9767151002NV.OF銀河收益凈值1.61091.60120.612.05-0.371.91090.33.7866159901NV.OF易方達深證100ETF凈值5.044.971.416.76-7.35.160.1210.6317159902NV.OF華夏中小板ETF凈值2.5812.5690.475.87-0.042.581011.482160105NV.OF南方積極配置凈值1.97511.9570.935.65-3.943.03011.05544.0375160106NV.OF南方高增長凈值2.79932.77490.884.65-4.993.70330.90446.4063160311NV.OF華夏藍籌核心凈值1.3311.3190.914.88-3.23.8152.043269.5585160314NV.OF華夏行業精選凈值3.6813.6411.14.54-0.924.4680.7875160505NV.OF博時主題行業凈值2.9922.9571.184.11-0.963.9130.92164.0489160602NV.OF鵬華普天債券A凈值1.0911.09100.190.371.220.1291.2807160603NV.OF鵬華普天收益凈值1.0241.0170.695.13-3.853.472.44628.7567160605NV.OF鵬華中國50凈值2.0942.0740.976.24-4.253.6241.5339.31160607NV.OF鵬華價值優勢凈值1.0151.0041.15.84-1.463.1142.071134.753160608NV.OF鵬華普天債券B凈值1.0791.0780.090.180.371.2080.1291.6393160610NV.OF鵬華動力增長凈值1.9921.9711.076.41-10.591.992072.7711160611NV.OF鵬華優質管理凈值1.371.3541.185.71-4.861.370158.1272160706NV.OF嘉實滬深300凈值1.2591.2431.295.98-5.483.1271.868265.7051160805NV.OF長盛同智優勢成長凈值1.83491.81231.255.47-6.362.74511.602752.9451160910NV.OF大成創新成長凈值1.2631.2481.25.69-3.812.4741.969219.2944161005NV.OF富國天惠精選成長凈值1.89321.8750.975.58-3.183.09321.223.8906161601NV.OF融通新藍籌凈值1.05081.04510.554.05-2.323.34582.295279.4033161603NV.OF融通債券凈值1.1681.169-0.090-0.341.3430.1752.4121161604NV.OF融通深證100凈值1.8211.7971.336.49-6.712.9911.1768.3123161605NV.OF融通藍籌成長凈值1.871.8520.975.59-5.631.1341.8806161606NV.OF融通行業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三：國泰金牛2023年分紅情景

2023兔年最佳的七字春聯毛筆字：

1.上聯：百年天地回元?；下聯：?統?河際太平。橫批：國泰?安。

2.上聯：財源滾滾隨春到；下聯：喜?洋洋伴福來。橫批：財源?進。

3.上聯：福?降臨闔家福；下聯：春光輝映滿堂春。橫批：新年?吉。

4.上聯：?帆?順吉星到；下聯：滿室花?喜事臨。橫批：財源?進。